# Is Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) a Buy Before Earnings? — 2026 Preview

> Options price a ±9.1% expected move (~$42.55; range $424.29–$509.39) for AMD's earnings on 2026-11-03.

**NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.** Options and earnings trades carry a high risk of loss. Expected move is the range the options market is currently pricing in — not a prediction or a guarantee. Informational and educational only; not financial advice.

## Earnings snapshot
- **Next earnings date:** 2026-11-03 (~0 days away)
- **Expected move (implied):** ±9.1% (~$42.55)
- **Implied range:** $424.29 – $509.39 (from $466.84)
- **ATM implied vol:** 154%
- **Basis:** FolioFundamentals AI & quant models, options expiry 2026-11-04

## What the expected move means
The expected move is the swing the market is pricing for earnings, derived using our proprietary AI and quant models from the live options market into the report. It's a ~68% (1 standard deviation) range, not a directional forecast.

## How AMD has moved on past earnings
Over its last 8 reports, AMD moved an average of ±3.3% the session after earnings (biggest ±7.7%), up 4 / down 4. This quarter options price ±9.1% — a bigger-than-usual move.

- 2026-06-30: +7.7%
- 2026-03-31: +3.8%
- 2025-12-31: +4.3%
- 2025-09-30: +1.4%
- 2025-06-30: -4.1%
- 2025-03-29: -0.5%
- 2024-12-28: -2.2%
- 2024-09-28: -2.6%


## Fundamental view
AMD shows strong growth and solid financial health, but valuation remains elevated and shareholder returns are limited. Fundamental Score: 66/100 (sector-normalized). Live score: https://foliofundamentals.com/analyzer?s=AMD

| Pillar | Reads as | Why |
|--------|----------|-----|
| Valuation | Stretched | Valuation is negative with a very high P/E and modest free cash flow yield. |
| Growth | Strong | Growth is positive, driven by robust revenue and EPS expansion. |
| Quality | High | Quality is positive, reflecting strong margins and cash conversion. |
| Financial Health | Sturdy | Financial health is positive, with comfortable leverage and liquidity. |
| Momentum | Leading | Momentum is positive as the share price outperforms its long‑term trend and sector. |
| Shareholder Returns | Thin | Shareholder returns are negative, with no dividend and limited buyback capacity. |

## AMD earnings track record
Beat the EPS estimate in 4 and missed in 1 of the last 5 reports.

| Quarter | EPS estimate | EPS actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 1.61 | 1.66 | +3.2% |
| 2026-03-31 | 1.29 | 1.37 | +5.8% |
| 2025-12-31 | 1.32 | 1.53 | +15.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 1.18 | 1.20 | +2.1% |
| 2025-06-30 | 0.48 | 0.48 | -0.5% |

## AMD today vs. its own history
| Measure | Today | 5-yr typical | 10-yr typical | 10-yr usual range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E ratio | 119.1x | 81.7x | 94.5x | 36.7x–195.4x |

AMD trades at **119.1x its last twelve months' earnings** (trailing P/E), 26% above its 10-year typical P/E of 94.5x. Over the last 8 years its P/E has been lower than today's in **67%** of quarters (usual range 36.7x–195.4x).

## AMD growth record by fiscal year (USD)
| Year | Revenue | EPS | Free cash flow | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $4.3B | −$0.60 | $4M | -11.5% |
| 2017 | $5.3B | −$0.03 | −$101M | -0.6% |
| 2018 | $6.5B | $0.32 | −$129M | 5.2% |
| 2019 | $6.7B | $0.30 | $276M | 5.1% |
| 2020 | $9.8B | $2.06 | $777M | 25.5% |
| 2021 | $16.4B | $2.57 | $3.2B | 19.2% |
| 2022 | $23.6B | $0.84 | $3.1B | 5.6% |
| 2023 | $22.7B | $0.53 | $1.1B | 3.8% |
| 2024 | $25.8B | $1.00 | $2.4B | 6.4% |
| 2025 | $34.6B | $2.65 | $6.7B | 12.5% |

## Bull case
- Growth score 9.0/10 driven by 46.7% EPS CAGR
- Financial health perfect with current ratio 2.6x and debt/equity 0.1x
- Momentum high 7.9/10 and 140% 12‑month return

## Bear case
- Valuation 3.5/10 reflects 23.6x P/B versus justified
- EV/EBITDA 84.3x yields zero valuation score
- Shareholder returns weak with 0.2% yield scoring 2/10

_Informational/educational only — not investment advice._